Basic information about the tools of sygstems thinkin

Basic information about the tools of systems thinking 

Ladder of Inference

The ladder of inference is visual tool that can be used to examine mental models, reflect on how they are formed and the effects they have on decision-making.

Click on a lesson title to view the lesson

Lessons Involving the Ladder of Inference

Lesson Title	Subject	Grade
Ladder of Inference	Multiple	5-12
Fact vs Fiction	Science	K-3
Search-and-Destroy Policy in Vietnam	Social Studies	6-12

Sample Ladders

Adapted from The Fifth Discipline Fieldbook. Last modified 3'00

http://www.watersfoundation.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=content.display&id=173

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Iceberg Diagram

Much of the time our focus and reaction is on individual events and not patterns, trends and interdependencies. The Iceberg diagram is a visual tool that helps focus our thinking below the surface level of events and to the patterns, trends, structures and mental models that produced those events. Once a deeper understanding is acquired beneficial change in the system is more likely.

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Lessons Involving the Iceberg Diagram

Lesson Title	Subject	Grade
Going Below the Surface of a System	Multiple	3-12
Schoolwork, Homework, and Grades	Multiple	6-12
Connections for Comprehension	LA/SS	4-12
The Bean Game	SS/Science	6-12
Patriots Unite	Social Studies	5-6
The Civil War	Social Studies	5-6
Search-and-Destroy Policy in Vietnam	Social Studies	6-12

Iceberg Samples

                                             

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Behavior-Over-Time Graphs

A BOTG is a simple tool that can help people focus on patterns of change over time rather than on isolated events, leading to rich discussions on how and why something is changing. BOTGs focus on trends. (©Catalina Foothills School District, 1997,2003)

Click on a lesson title to view the lesson

Lessons Involving Behavior-Over-Time Graphs

Lesson Title	Subject	Grade
The Bean Game	SS/Science	6-12
The Civil War	Social Studies	5-6
Exploration  Through the Maze	Social Studies	5
Patriots Unite	Social Studies	5-6
Arizona Statehood	Social Studies	4
The Niko Shoe Company	Math	6-8
Connections for Comprehension	LA/SS	4-12
Guided Reading - Increasing Comprehension	Language Arts	4
100 Hungry Ants	Math	2
I Hate English	Foreign Language	4-5
Air and Weather	Science	4-5
Reaching Goals	Multiple	4-12
Change Over Time	Multiple	K-12
Be Nice to Spiders	Children's Story	K-8
One Grain of Rice: A Mathematical Folktale	Children's Story	3-8
War with Grandpa	Children's Story	3-8
Who Really Killed Cock Robin	Children's Story	3-8
The Gingerbread Boy	Children's Story	K-8
Billibonk and the Thorn Patch	Children's Story	2-8
Understanding Nonfiction Text	LA/SS	5-12
Extinction of Wooly Mammoths	Science/Math	3-5
Schoolwork, Homework, and Grades	Multiple	6-12
Dynamics of Scrooge's Generosity	Language Arts	6-12
The Birthday Challenge	Math	8-12
S-Shaped Growth and Sustainability	Science	6-12

Tips for Behavior-Over-Time Graphs (BOTGs)

Behavior-Over-Time Graphs (BOTGs): A BOTG is a simple tool that can help people focus on patterns of change over time rather than on isolated events, leading to rich discussions on how and why something is changing.

1.      A BOTG is a basic line graph showing the trend, or pattern of change, of a variable over time.

2. The X axis: 

2.            ·         is always labeled in units of time or can reflect change in time.

·         has defined beginning and ending points; the precision of the definition can meet your specific purpose.

Care should be taken to explain the logic for the time scale.  Why does it start and end where it does? Examination of when and where a particular pattern of behavior starts, ends, or changes direction is also important.

3.  The Y axis:

·         clearly identifies the variable being graphed and must be labeled with that variable's name.

·         should not include qualitative words such as more, less, increasing, bigger, etc., in the variable's name; for example, it's difficult to understand more fear decreasing over time. 

·         may  represent  concrete variables (quantities such as population or temperature) or abstract variables (like love or stress).

·        must have a defined scale.  Scales can be numeric (e.g., 2 to 1000 rabbits or on a scale of 0 to 100) or descriptive (e.g., low vs. high).

4.  Different interpretations of the behavior of the variable are definitely possible. Both similarities and differences among graphs are grounds for rich discussion about individual interpretations or mental models.

5.  More than one variable can be plotted on the same graph to compare 
     them for possible interdependence or causal relationships between
     variables.  Differentiate between the lines with careful labeling or the
     inclusion of a key. This step can contribute to thought provoking
     discussions.

  ©Catalina Foothills School District, 1997, 2003

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Connection Circles

Connection circles are visual tools designed to increase understanding of dynamic systems. Key components of a system, that change over time are identified and placed around a circle. Arrows are drawn from one element to another to trace cause and effect relationships and expose feedback loops.

Lessons Involving Connection Circles

The lessons listed below can be found at the following link:The Shape of Change

Lesson Title	Subject	Grade
Do You Want Fries With That?	Cross-Curricular	5-8
Keystone Species in an Ecosystem	Cross-Curricular	5-8

 The lessons below are available on this website.

Lesson Title	Subject	Grade
Perseverance Unit	Multiple	K-3
Arizona Statehood	Social Studies	4

Information and Sample Connection Circles

How to work with connection circles: Draw a large circle (leaving room for writing elements around the outside of the circle) Choose elements of the story that satisfy all of these criteria: They are important to the changes in the story. They are nouns or noun phrases. They increase or decrease in the story. Write your elements around the circle. Include no more than 5 to 10. Find elements that cause an other element to increase or decrease. Draw an arrow from the cause to the effect. The causal connection must be direct. Look for feedback loops. Adapted from The Shape of Change. Quaden, Rob & Ticotsky, Alan. 2005

Below is a step by step sample of a connection circle from The Shape Change book based on the article Eyes on the Fries: America Needs a More Nutritious French Fry. Current Science, March 1, 2002 by Rene Ebersole.

Choose elements from the system and write them around the circle.

Find elements that cause another element to increase or decrease.  Draw an arrow from the cause to the effect.

Look for and identify feedback loops.

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Causal Loop Diagram (CLD)

Causal loop diagrams help one understand and communicate the interactions that determine the dynamics of a system. System behaviors are generated from within the system and are the result of one or more causal (or feedback) loops. CLDs illustrate how "structure generates behavior"  within a system. (©Catalina Foothills School District, 1997,2003)

Click on a lesson title to view the lesson

Lessons Involving Causal Loop Diagrams

Lesson Title	Subject	Grade
Understanding Fixes that Backfire	Multiple	5-8
Understanding Escalation	Multiple	5-8
Reaching Goals	Multiple	4-12
Connections for Comprehension	LA/SS	4-12
Patriots Unite	Social Studies	5-6
The Civil War	Social Studies	5-6
Be Nice to Spiders	Children's Story	K-8
One Grain of Rice: A Mathematical Folktale	Children's Story	3-8
War with Grandpa	Children's Story	3-8
Who Really Killed Cock Robin	Children's Story	3-8
The Gingerbread Boy	Children's Story	K-8
Billibonk and the Thorn Patch	Children's Story	2-8
The Growing Plant	Science	3-5
Schoolwork, Homework, and Grades	Multiple	6-12

Tips for Causal Loop Diagrams

Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs) help one understand and communicate the interactions that determine the dynamics of a system. System behaviors are generated from within the system and are the result of one or more causal (or feedback) loops.

1.    CLDs show causal relationships and illustrate circular feedback within a system. A cause becomes an effect, becomes a cause. You should be able to read around the loop several times.  "What goes around comes around."

2.  You may choose to identify important CLDs by looking for causal relationships among behavior-over-time graphs (BOTGs) that describe the system or by extracting those found within Stock/Flow maps and computer simulations.

Since CLDs are about the causes of change, it is helpful to identify how key elements actually did change by drawing accompanying BOTGs .(See Fig. 1: As drug use goes up, dependency goes up; as dependency goes up, drug use goes up.)

3.  Find a specific focus for the loop(s) you draw, taking into account the purpose and audience for the loop(s).  A CLD can help you tell a story or express your interpretation or mental model of how a system works.  A single, understandable CLD can describe a simple system or a part of a more complex one.

Pick one aspect of the system.  Focus on a behavior that is changing over time. What are the causes? What are the effects? This/these become the other aspects of the loop(s).

4.  CLDs contain 4 elements (See Fig. 1):

a.      Variables that are related in cause/effect sequence(s) (See #5 below.)

b.      Arrows that indicate which elements are affecting other elements.

c.      Symbols associated with the arrows that denote the direction of the influence of the relationships (See #6 below.)

d.      A central symbol indicating the overall identity of the loop (either "R" reinforcing or "B" balancing) (See #7 below.)

5.      All variables in a CLD must be able to increase or decrease; at least one must be a stock, i.e. an accumulation. (See "Tips for Stock/Flow Maps.")

a.      Choose precise, non-repetitive terms for the variables in CLDs, e.g. "Feelings" is too nebulous a term to include in a loop...what does an increase in feelings really mean?  Try a more specific feeling such as "happiness," "sadness," or "frustration" instead.

b. Do not use words such as more/less, or increases/decreases in
    the variable name. It is very hard to interpret less "more drug
    use" or more "less drug use."

6.      Symbols associated with the arrowhead end of each arrow indicate the effect of the influence.
    a. An "S" means that both variables move in the same direction. If 
       the first variable increases, the second variable will be greater
       than it would have been otherwise; a decrease in the first 
       causes the second to be less than it would have otherwise
       been. A "+" may be used in a similar although not identical
       fashion.  (For clarification of the difference between "S" and "+,"
       refer to writings by John Sterman and/or George Richardson.)   

b. An "O" shows that the two variables change in the opposite direction.  If the first variable increases, the second will be less than it would have been otherwise; a decrease in the first variable causes the second to be greater than it would have been otherwise. A "-" may be used in a similar, although not identical, fashion.  (For clarification of the difference between "O" and "-," refer to writings by John Sterman and/or George Richardson.)

7   A CLD may be "reinforcing" and grow, or shrink, until acted upon by a limiting force, or "balancing" and move toward, return to, or oscillate around a particular condition.  Reinforcing loops are marked with an "R" in the center; balancing loops are indicated with a "B" in the center .  Graphs of behaviors from:         

                               
Reinforcing Loops                                   Balancing Loops

8. If there is a significant amount of time between the action of one
   variable and the reaction of the next variable in the loop, a time delay
   can be indicated by drawing two short, parallel line segments across
   the arrow that connects those two variables.

©Catalina Foothills School District, 1997, 2003

                                                

http://www.watersfoundation.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=content.display&id=165

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Archetypes

Systems archetypes are common causal loop combinations (combinations of balancing and reinforcing loops) that are often found within a system structure. (Systems Thinking and Dynamic Modeling, David P. Kreutzer, 1994)

Click on a lesson title to view the lesson

Lessons Involving Archetypes

Lesson Title	Subject	Grade
Understanding Escalation	Multiple	3-12
Understanding Fixes that Backfire	Multiple	3-8
Cause and Effect	Social Studies	3
The Bean Game	SS/Science	6-12
Search-and-Destroy Policy in Vietnam	Social Studies	6-12

Archetype Lenses The archetypes can be used as templates to view situations from new perspectives. Below are different archetypes and questions to consider when determining if the archetype fits the system's behavior.

Archetype - Fixes that Fail/Backfire

· Have actions been taken to respond quickly to a problem/crisis without much     consideration of long-term consequences? · Did the response help to reduce the problem in the beginning but long term     consequences actually created more problems?

One Fixes that Fail/Backfire Story

· Problem Symptom - Achievement gap · Fix - Administration unilaterally add a new program to the curriculum · Unintended Consequences - Teacher resentment, have too much to do      already without learning a new program on top of everything else that     probably will be replaced shortly by another new program.

The fix relieves the problem symptom in the short run.  However, it creates an unintended consequence that makes the problem symptom worse.  This requires the fix to be applied again creating the unintended consequences once more, which in turn increases the severity of the problem symptom.

Archetype - Drifting Goals

· Are there goals or standards that are eroding over time? · Are people focused on achieving the goal or on reducing the discomfort of not     achieving the goals?

One Drifting Goal Story

· Goal - Mrs. Dumas wants all of her social studies students to complete their     reading assignment outside of class so they can participate in class discussions     about the controversial issues raised. · Condition - Many students arrive to class without having done their reading,     making class discussion difficult and ineffective. · Gap - The difference between the goal and the condition. · Actions to Improve Conditions - Mrs. Dumas would need to find new     ways to motivate and facilitate her students in doing their reading assignment     outside of class. · Pressures to Adjust Goals - Mrs. Dumas chooses to use class time for     reading, thereby reducing or eliminating the time for valuable discussion.  This     engenders an expectation that students do not need to read outside of class.

Drifting goals occur when a goal is watered down or changed due to the conditions or a lack of understanding of the “big picture”, instead of taking the necessary actions to improve conditions and/or change the structure to create an environment in which the goal may be attained.

Archetype - Escalation

· Are there two or more players of equal power whose individual actions can be    perceived as a threat by the others? · Does each player have the capacity to retaliate with similar actions?

· Activity by A - During the Cold War the US developed new weapon systems    to address a perceived threat from the USSR  · A's Result - The US felt safer · Results of A's Relative to B's - The US had more sophisticated weapons    than the USSR · Threat to B - The USSR sees the new development in the US arsenal as a    threat to their security · Activity by B - The USSR increased its weapons capabilities · B's Result - The USSR felt safer · A's Position Relative to B's - The USSR had more sophisticated weapons    than the US · Threat to A - The US sees the new development in the USSR arsenal as a    threat to their security · Activity by A - As a result the US increased its weapons capabilities and    around and around they went.

The actions of both parties continue to escalate until other strategies are employed to stop the behavior and/or resources are exhausted.

Archetype - Shifting the Burden

· Are actions that were taken to address problem symptoms actually making it     more difficult to implement more fundamental solutions? · Are there additional consequences that systematically erode the capability to     implement a fundamental solution?

One Shifting the Burden Story

· Problem Symptom - Students are not prepared after high school · Symptomatic Solution - Accountability based on standardized testing in     core subjects focused on content knowledge · Side Effect - Standardized tests tend to assess fact knowledge and not     critical thinking or problem solving skills. Teaching time and effort focused on     core subjects and test prep · Fundamental Solution - Developing a structure where students develop     critical thinking and problem solving skills necessary to be successful in the     future, as well as content knowledge

Not understanding the “big picture” and focusing on a symptomatic solution produces side effects. Side effects siphon off resources that could be used to implement the fundamental solution. The fundamental solution will address the problem long term. However, there is a delay before a positive change starts to take place.  This delay, if not accounted for can lead to abandoning the fundamental solution before positive change starts.

Archetype - Success to the Successful

· Are there two or more equal options that are linked to a common resource     and support and gain for one results in loss of support and gain for another?

One Success to the Successful Story

· Success of A - After attending a training session on a new reading instruction     program, Ms Jones’ students show dramatic gains in reading comprehension     at the end of the semester. · Success of B - While he attended the same training as Ms Jones, Mr.     Baker’s students show more moderate gains. · Allocation to A instead of B - When a new training opportunity, in boosting     student self-confidence, comes along, the principal decides to send Ms Jones     because she has shown she can successfully implement new techniques. · Resources to A - Ms Jones gains a greater repertoire of effective teaching     techniques. · Resources to B - Mr. Baker gets fewer opportunities to build his teaching     skill.

This system structure, in which there are limited resources, programs and/or people that are already successful receive a majority of the resources. Leaving alternative programs and/or people with inadequate resources to develop and become successful.

Archetype - Limits to Success

· Are once-successful systems experiencing diminishing returns? · Are there limits in the system that are constraining the growth?

One Limits to Success Story

Performance      · Student development of critical thinking skills and lifelong learning · Efforts       · Teacher training in systems thinking      · Mentors working with teachers to identify & plan how systems thinking         tools, concepts and habits can enhance student development of critical         thinking and problem solving skills      · Informing curriculum specialists of the role systems thinking plays in the         development of critical thinking and lifelong learning      · Coordination of existing programs to identify and take advantage of         efficiencies · Limiting Actions       · As more teachers are trained more mentors are needed      · More mentors mean an increase in budget      · Teachers wary of the latest greatest new thing to add to an already          overloaded work   environment · Constraints      · Time,      · Budget

No system can grow forever.  By being aware of the limiting actions and constraints of a system, participants can make changes as success grows. Enabling maximum growth and efficiency.

Archetype - Tragedy of the Commons

· Is there a large number of equal players who have free or equal     access to a common and limited resource? · Is the system set up to be self-regulated, with no governing policies     or goals and competition or greed could cause problems?

One Tragedy of the Commons Story

· Resource Limit      · The time it takes for trees to grow to a harvestable size · Gain per Individual Activity          · Number of harvestable trees available for company A & B · Net Gains for A           · Trees harvested and profits produced each year · A's Activity            · The more harvesting the greater the profits · Net Gains for B            · Trees harvested and profits produced each year · B's Activity      · The more harvesting the greater the profits Total Activity          · Total number of trees harvested by company A and company B each time          period.

As the total activity overtakes the resource limit fewer trees are available for harvest. The mature trees gained per individual activity will decline resulting in lost profits. The two competing companies may start to harvest immature trees to protect their profit margin.  If this action is allowed the resource will be depleted beyond its ability to regenerate.

Archetype diagrams and questions adapted from Applying Systems Archetypes,
Daniel H. Kim & Colleen P. Lannon

http://www.watersfoundation.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=content.display&id=176

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Stock/Flow Maps

Stock/Flow (S/F) maps can show interdependencies and feedback within a system by identifying major accumulations and the factors that increase and decrease them over time. (©Catalina Foothills School District, 1997, 2003)

Click on a lesson title to view the lesson

Lessons Involving Stock/Flow Maps

Lesson Title	Subject	Grade
Writing an Animal Report	Language Arts	2
Understanding Nonfiction Text	LA/SS	5-12
Dynamics of Scrooge's Generosity	Language Arts	6-12
The Niko Shoe Company	Math	6-8
The Birthday Challenge	Math	8-12
The Growing Plant 2	Science	K-2
Search-and-Destroy Policy in Vietnam	Social Studies	6-12
S-Shaped Growth and Sustainability	Science	6-12

Tips for Stock/Flow Maps

Stock/Flow (S/F) Maps: Stock/Flow (S/F) maps can show interdependencies and feedback within a system by identifying major accumulations and the factors that increase and decrease them over time.  

1. Definitions: stock: an accumulation of "stuff", either concrete (e.g. dollars) or abstract (e.g. anger (to match e.g. in flow), that can increase or decrease over time.  Stocks are the "nouns" in the system and should be named (and labeled) as such. Stocks can only be modified through flows.

   flow: action or process that transports "stuff", directly adding to (inflow) or taking  away from (outflow) the accumulation in the stock.  A flow is always a rate and is defined in terms of units of the stock per unit of time ("stuff" in the stock per time).  Flows are the "verbs" in the system and it's best that they be labeled to reflect that- e.g., "dollars added/ing (per month)" or "anger released/ing (per hour)." The "cloud" at the end of the flow symbol represents the boundary of the system.

  converter: holds information about the system that affects the rate of the flows, or that affects the value of another converter. e.g. allowance affects the rate of dollars added per month

 connector:  moves information from one element of the system/map to another.  You can think of a connector as a "wire" that carries information (in contrast to a flow that carries "stuff"). It originates at the point where it "picks up" that information and terminates (the arrowhead end) at the place the information is delivered.  (Remember, stocks can only be affected through flows, therefore you should not attach a connector directly to a stock.)

2. A "bathtub" analogy may help to explain the concept of stocks and
   flows.

·         A stock is like the water in a bathtub, the level of which can change over time.

·         An inflow represents water being added through a faucet; an outflow represents water flowing out through a drain.

·         Converters and connectors determine how quickly the water flows in and/or out.

 3. Stock/flow mapping (and computer modeling, for that matter) proceeds by identifying the critical stock(s), then determining what flows are important in changing the amount of the stock, and finally by defining what elements in the system influence the rate of the flow(s).

 4. To identify which stock(s) to include in a map, first identify the critical behaviors of the system and create and discuss BOTGs that reflect those behaviors.

·         When choosing a name for any element in a Stock/Flow Map, keep comparative words such as more or less out of the name, e.g., Level of Stress is preferable to More Stress.  (See #5 in Tips for CLDs.)

·        Labeling parts of the map clearly is critically important. The labels make the story clear to others.

 

                                                                                                    

      

5. Converters contain information that, ultimately, affects the flows that affect the stocks. Work outward from the flows in identifying those converters.  What converter(s) will affect each flow?  What converter(s) will affect those original converters? 

6. Once you have drawn your stock(s), flows, converters, and
   connectors, make sure you look for the feedback from the stock(s)
   that makes a system dynamic.  Ask questions such as:  Does the
   accumulation in the stock affect its inflow? outflow? converters? other
   stocks’ inflow/outflow/converters?

©Catalina Foothills School District, 1997, 2003

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Computer Simulation Models

Complex dynamic systems involve many interdependencies and feedback loops. Understanding such systems is a daunting task for the human mind. Computer models can simulate the interdependent relationships and system behavior over time. Builders and/or users of the model have an opportunity to observe and experiment by changing variables to increase understanding and explore the long-term effects of different policy choices.

Click on a lesson title to view the lesson

Lessons Involving Pre-Built Computer Simulations

Lesson Title	Subject	Grade
Schoolwork, Homework, and Grades	Multiple	6-12
Dynamics of Scooge's Generosity	Language Arts	6-12
Search-and-Destroy Policy in Vietnam	Social Studies	6-12
Rumors - Exponential Growth	Multiple	6-12
Newton's 2nd Law	Science	9-12
Bacteria - Exponential Growth	Math/Science	6-12
S-Shaped Growth and Sustainability	Science	6-12

Lessons Requiring Model Building

Lesson Title	Subject	Grade
The Birthday Challenge	Math	8-12
The Niko Shoe Company	Math	6-8
Extinction of Wooly Mammoths	Math/Science	3-5

To explore sample models, case studies and tutorials please visit -
 www.iseesystems.com

http://www.watersfoundation.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=content.display&id=178