Basic information about the tools of sygstems thinkin

Basic information about the tools of systems thinking 

Ladder of Inference

The ladder of inference is visual tool that can be used to examine mental models, reflect on how they are formed and the effects they have on decision-making.

Click on a lesson title to view the lesson

Lessons Involving the Ladder of Inference

Lesson Title	Subject	Grade
Ladder of Inference	Multiple	5-12
Fact vs Fiction	Science	K-3
Search-and-Destroy Policy in Vietnam	Social Studies	6-12

Sample Ladders

Adapted from The Fifth Discipline Fieldbook. Last modified 3'00

http://www.watersfoundation.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=content.display&id=173

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Iceberg Diagram

Much of the time our focus and reaction is on individual events and not patterns, trends and interdependencies. The Iceberg diagram is a visual tool that helps focus our thinking below the surface level of events and to the patterns, trends, structures and mental models that produced those events. Once a deeper understanding is acquired beneficial change in the system is more likely.

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Lessons Involving the Iceberg Diagram

Lesson Title	Subject	Grade
Going Below the Surface of a System	Multiple	3-12
Schoolwork, Homework, and Grades	Multiple	6-12
Connections for Comprehension	LA/SS	4-12
The Bean Game	SS/Science	6-12
Patriots Unite	Social Studies	5-6
The Civil War	Social Studies	5-6
Search-and-Destroy Policy in Vietnam	Social Studies	6-12

Iceberg Samples

                                             

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Behavior-Over-Time Graphs

A BOTG is a simple tool that can help people focus on patterns of change over time rather than on isolated events, leading to rich discussions on how and why something is changing. BOTGs focus on trends. (©Catalina Foothills School District, 1997,2003)

Click on a lesson title to view the lesson

Lessons Involving Behavior-Over-Time Graphs

Lesson Title	Subject	Grade
The Bean Game	SS/Science	6-12
The Civil War	Social Studies	5-6
Exploration  Through the Maze	Social Studies	5
Patriots Unite	Social Studies	5-6
Arizona Statehood	Social Studies	4
The Niko Shoe Company	Math	6-8
Connections for Comprehension	LA/SS	4-12
Guided Reading - Increasing Comprehension	Language Arts	4
100 Hungry Ants	Math	2
I Hate English	Foreign Language	4-5
Air and Weather	Science	4-5
Reaching Goals	Multiple	4-12
Change Over Time	Multiple	K-12
Be Nice to Spiders	Children's Story	K-8
One Grain of Rice: A Mathematical Folktale	Children's Story	3-8
War with Grandpa	Children's Story	3-8
Who Really Killed Cock Robin	Children's Story	3-8
The Gingerbread Boy	Children's Story	K-8
Billibonk and the Thorn Patch	Children's Story	2-8
Understanding Nonfiction Text	LA/SS	5-12
Extinction of Wooly Mammoths	Science/Math	3-5
Schoolwork, Homework, and Grades	Multiple	6-12
Dynamics of Scrooge's Generosity	Language Arts	6-12
The Birthday Challenge	Math	8-12
S-Shaped Growth and Sustainability	Science	6-12

Tips for Behavior-Over-Time Graphs (BOTGs)

Behavior-Over-Time Graphs (BOTGs): A BOTG is a simple tool that can help people focus on patterns of change over time rather than on isolated events, leading to rich discussions on how and why something is changing.

1.      A BOTG is a basic line graph showing the trend, or pattern of change, of a variable over time.

2. The X axis: 

2.            ·         is always labeled in units of time or can reflect change in time.

·         has defined beginning and ending points; the precision of the definition can meet your specific purpose.

Care should be taken to explain the logic for the time scale.  Why does it start and end where it does? Examination of when and where a particular pattern of behavior starts, ends, or changes direction is also important.

3.  The Y axis:

·         clearly identifies the variable being graphed and must be labeled with that variable's name.

·         should not include qualitative words such as more, less, increasing, bigger, etc., in the variable's name; for example, it's difficult to understand more fear decreasing over time. 

·         may  represent  concrete variables (quantities such as population or temperature) or abstract variables (like love or stress).

·        must have a defined scale.  Scales can be numeric (e.g., 2 to 1000 rabbits or on a scale of 0 to 100) or descriptive (e.g., low vs. high).

4.  Different interpretations of the behavior of the variable are definitely possible. Both similarities and differences among graphs are grounds for rich discussion about individual interpretations or mental models.

5.  More than one variable can be plotted on the same graph to compare 
     them for possible interdependence or causal relationships between
     variables.  Differentiate between the lines with careful labeling or the
     inclusion of a key. This step can contribute to thought provoking
     discussions.

  ©Catalina Foothills School District, 1997, 2003

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Connection Circles

Connection circles are visual tools designed to increase understanding of dynamic systems. Key components of a system, that change over time are identified and placed around a circle. Arrows are drawn from one element to another to trace cause and effect relationships and expose feedback loops.

Lessons Involving Connection Circles

The lessons listed below can be found at the following link:The Shape of Change

Lesson Title	Subject	Grade
Do You Want Fries With That?	Cross-Curricular	5-8
Keystone Species in an Ecosystem	Cross-Curricular	5-8

 The lessons below are available on this website.

Lesson Title	Subject	Grade
Perseverance Unit	Multiple	K-3
Arizona Statehood	Social Studies	4

Information and Sample Connection Circles

How to work with connection circles: Draw a large circle (leaving room for writing elements around the outside of the circle) Choose elements of the story that satisfy all of these criteria: They are important to the changes in the story. They are nouns or noun phrases. They increase or decrease in the story. Write your elements around the circle. Include no more than 5 to 10. Find elements that cause an other element to increase or decrease. Draw an arrow from the cause to the effect. The causal connection must be direct. Look for feedback loops. Adapted from The Shape of Change. Quaden, Rob & Ticotsky, Alan. 2005

Below is a step by step sample of a connection circle from The Shape Change book based on the article Eyes on the Fries: America Needs a More Nutritious French Fry. Current Science, March 1, 2002 by Rene Ebersole.

Choose elements from the system and write them around the circle.

Find elements that cause another element to increase or decrease.  Draw an arrow from the cause to the effect.

Look for and identify feedback loops.

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Causal Loop Diagram (CLD)

Causal loop diagrams help one understand and communicate the interactions that determine the dynamics of a system. System behaviors are generated from within the system and are the result of one or more causal (or feedback) loops. CLDs illustrate how "structure generates behavior"  within a system. (©Catalina Foothills School District, 1997,2003)

Click on a lesson title to view the lesson

Lessons Involving Causal Loop Diagrams

Lesson Title	Subject	Grade
Understanding Fixes that Backfire	Multiple	5-8
Understanding Escalation	Multiple	5-8
Reaching Goals	Multiple	4-12
Connections for Comprehension	LA/SS	4-12
Patriots Unite	Social Studies	5-6
The Civil War	Social Studies	5-6
Be Nice to Spiders	Children's Story	K-8
One Grain of Rice: A Mathematical Folktale	Children's Story	3-8
War with Grandpa	Children's Story	3-8
Who Really Killed Cock Robin	Children's Story	3-8
The Gingerbread Boy	Children's Story	K-8
Billibonk and the Thorn Patch	Children's Story	2-8
The Growing Plant	Science	3-5
Schoolwork, Homework, and Grades	Multiple	6-12

Tips for Causal Loop Diagrams

Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs) help one understand and communicate the interactions that determine the dynamics of a system. System behaviors are generated from within the system and are the result of one or more causal (or feedback) loops.

1.    CLDs show causal relationships and illustrate circular feedback within a system. A cause becomes an effect, becomes a cause. You should be able to read around the loop several times.  "What goes around comes around."

2.  You may choose to identify important CLDs by looking for causal relationships among behavior-over-time graphs (BOTGs) that describe the system or by extracting those found within Stock/Flow maps and computer simulations.

Since CLDs are about the causes of change, it is helpful to identify how key elements actually did change by drawing accompanying BOTGs .(See Fig. 1: As drug use goes up, dependency goes up; as dependency goes up, drug use goes up.)

3.  Find a specific focus for the loop(s) you draw, taking into account the purpose and audience for the loop(s).  A CLD can help you tell a story or express your interpretation or mental model of how a system works.  A single, understandable CLD can describe a simple system or a part of a more complex one.

Pick one aspect of the system.  Focus on a behavior that is changing over time. What are the causes? What are the effects? This/these become the other aspects of the loop(s).

4.  CLDs contain 4 elements (See Fig. 1):

a.      Variables that are related in cause/effect sequence(s) (See #5 below.)

b.      Arrows that indicate which elements are affecting other elements.

c.      Symbols associated with the arrows that denote the direction of the influence of the relationships (See #6 below.)

d.      A central symbol indicating the overall identity of the loop (either "R" reinforcing or "B" balancing) (See #7 below.)

5.      All variables in a CLD must be able to increase or decrease; at least one must be a stock, i.e. an accumulation. (See "Tips for Stock/Flow Maps.")

a.      Choose precise, non-repetitive terms for the variables in CLDs, e.g. "Feelings" is too nebulous a term to include in a loop...what does an increase in feelings really mean?  Try a more specific feeling such as "happiness," "sadness," or "frustration" instead.

b. Do not use words such as more/less, or increases/decreases in
    the variable name. It is very hard to interpret less "more drug
    use" or more "less drug use."

6.      Symbols associated with the arrowhead end of each arrow indicate the effect of the influence.
    a. An "S" means that both variables move in the same direction. If 
       the first variable increases, the second variable will be greater
       than it would have been otherwise; a decrease in the first 
       causes the second to be less than it would have otherwise
       been. A "+" may be used in a similar although not identical
       fashion.  (For clarification of the difference between "S" and "+,"
       refer to writings by John Sterman and/or George Richardson.)   

b. An "O" shows that the two variables change in the opposite direction.  If the first variable increases, the second will be less than it would have been otherwise; a decrease in the first variable causes the second to be greater than it would have been otherwise. A "-" may be used in a similar, although not identical, fashion.  (For clarification of the difference between "O" and "-," refer to writings by John Sterman and/or George Richardson.)

7   A CLD may be "reinforcing" and grow, or shrink, until acted upon by a limiting force, or "balancing" and move toward, return to, or oscillate around a particular condition.  Reinforcing loops are marked with an "R" in the center; balancing loops are indicated with a "B" in the center .  Graphs of behaviors from:         

                               
Reinforcing Loops                                   Balancing Loops

8. If there is a significant amount of time between the action of one
   variable and the reaction of the next variable in the loop, a time delay
   can be indicated by drawing two short, parallel line segments across
   the arrow that connects those two variables.

©Catalina Foothills School District, 1997, 2003

                                                

http://www.watersfoundation.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=content.display&id=165

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Archetypes

Systems archetypes are common causal loop combinations (combinations of balancing and reinforcing loops) that are often found within a system structure. (Systems Thinking and Dynamic Modeling, David P. Kreutzer, 1994)

Click on a lesson title to view the lesson

Lessons Involving Archetypes

Lesson Title	Subject	Grade
Understanding Escalation	Multiple	3-12
Understanding Fixes that Backfire	Multiple	3-8
Cause and Effect	Social Studies	3
The Bean Game	SS/Science	6-12
Search-and-Destroy Policy in Vietnam	Social Studies	6-12

Archetype Lenses The archetypes can be used as templates to view situations from new perspectives. Below are different archetypes and questions to consider when determining if the archetype fits the system's behavior.

Archetype - Fixes that Fail/Backfire

· Have actions been taken to respond quickly to a problem/crisis without much     consideration of long-term consequences? · Did the response help to reduce the problem in the beginning but long term     consequences actually created more problems?

One Fixes that Fail/Backfire Story

· Problem Symptom - Achievement gap · Fix - Administration unilaterally add a new program to the curriculum · Unintended Consequences - Teacher resentment, have too much to do      already without learning a new program on top of everything else that     probably will be replaced shortly by another new program.

The fix relieves the problem symptom in the short run.  However, it creates an unintended consequence that makes the problem symptom worse.  This requires the fix to be applied again creating the unintended consequences once more, which in turn increases the severity of the problem symptom.

Archetype - Drifting Goals

· Are there goals or standards that are eroding over time? · Are people focused on achieving the goal or on reducing the discomfort of not     achieving the goals?

One Drifting Goal Story

· Goal - Mrs. Dumas wants all of her social studies students to complete their     reading assignment outside of class so they can participate in class discussions     about the controversial issues raised. · Condition - Many students arrive to class without having done their reading,     making class discussion difficult and ineffective. · Gap - The difference between the goal and the condition. · Actions to Improve Conditions - Mrs. Dumas would need to find new     ways to motivate and facilitate her students in doing their reading assignment     outside of class. · Pressures to Adjust Goals - Mrs. Dumas chooses to use class time for     reading, thereby reducing or eliminating the time for valuable discussion.  This     engenders an expectation that students do not need to read outside of class.

Drifting goals occur when a goal is watered down or changed due to the conditions or a lack of understanding of the “big picture”, instead of taking the necessary actions to improve conditions and/or change the structure to create an environment in which the goal may be attained.

Archetype - Escalation

· Are there two or more players of equal power whose individual actions can be    perceived as a threat by the others? · Does each player have the capacity to retaliate with similar actions?

· Activity by A - During the Cold War the US developed new weapon systems    to address a perceived threat from the USSR  · A's Result - The US felt safer · Results of A's Relative to B's - The US had more sophisticated weapons    than the USSR · Threat to B - The USSR sees the new development in the US arsenal as a    threat to their security · Activity by B - The USSR increased its weapons capabilities · B's Result - The USSR felt safer · A's Position Relative to B's - The USSR had more sophisticated weapons    than the US · Threat to A - The US sees the new development in the USSR arsenal as a    threat to their security · Activity by A - As a result the US increased its weapons capabilities and    around and around they went.

The actions of both parties continue to escalate until other strategies are employed to stop the behavior and/or resources are exhausted.

Archetype - Shifting the Burden

· Are actions that were taken to address problem symptoms actually making it     more difficult to implement more fundamental solutions? · Are there additional consequences that systematically erode the capability to     implement a fundamental solution?

One Shifting the Burden Story

· Problem Symptom - Students are not prepared after high school · Symptomatic Solution - Accountability based on standardized testing in     core subjects focused on content knowledge · Side Effect - Standardized tests tend to assess fact knowledge and not     critical thinking or problem solving skills. Teaching time and effort focused on     core subjects and test prep · Fundamental Solution - Developing a structure where students develop     critical thinking and problem solving skills necessary to be successful in the     future, as well as content knowledge

Not understanding the “big picture” and focusing on a symptomatic solution produces side effects. Side effects siphon off resources that could be used to implement the fundamental solution. The fundamental solution will address the problem long term. However, there is a delay before a positive change starts to take place.  This delay, if not accounted for can lead to abandoning the fundamental solution before positive change starts.

Archetype - Success to the Successful

· Are there two or more equal options that are linked to a common resource     and support and gain for one results in loss of support and gain for another?

One Success to the Successful Story

· Success of A - After attending a training session on a new reading instruction     program, Ms Jones’ students show dramatic gains in reading comprehension     at the end of the semester. · Success of B - While he attended the same training as Ms Jones, Mr.     Baker’s students show more moderate gains. · Allocation to A instead of B - When a new training opportunity, in boosting     student self-confidence, comes along, the principal decides to send Ms Jones     because she has shown she can successfully implement new techniques. · Resources to A - Ms Jones gains a greater repertoire of effective teaching     techniques. · Resources to B - Mr. Baker gets fewer opportunities to build his teaching     skill.

This system structure, in which there are limited resources, programs and/or people that are already successful receive a majority of the resources. Leaving alternative programs and/or people with inadequate resources to develop and become successful.

Archetype - Limits to Success

· Are once-successful systems experiencing diminishing returns? · Are there limits in the system that are constraining the growth?

One Limits to Success Story

Performance      · Student development of critical thinking skills and lifelong learning · Efforts       · Teacher training in systems thinking      · Mentors working with teachers to identify & plan how systems thinking         tools, concepts and habits can enhance student development of critical         thinking and problem solving skills      · Informing curriculum specialists of the role systems thinking plays in the         development of critical thinking and lifelong learning      · Coordination of existing programs to identify and take advantage of         efficiencies · Limiting Actions       · As more teachers are trained more mentors are needed      · More mentors mean an increase in budget      · Teachers wary of the latest greatest new thing to add to an already          overloaded work   environment · Constraints      · Time,      · Budget

No system can grow forever.  By being aware of the limiting actions and constraints of a system, participants can make changes as success grows. Enabling maximum growth and efficiency.

Archetype - Tragedy of the Commons

· Is there a large number of equal players who have free or equal     access to a common and limited resource? · Is the system set up to be self-regulated, with no governing policies     or goals and competition or greed could cause problems?

One Tragedy of the Commons Story

· Resource Limit      · The time it takes for trees to grow to a harvestable size · Gain per Individual Activity          · Number of harvestable trees available for company A & B · Net Gains for A           · Trees harvested and profits produced each year · A's Activity            · The more harvesting the greater the profits · Net Gains for B            · Trees harvested and profits produced each year · B's Activity      · The more harvesting the greater the profits Total Activity          · Total number of trees harvested by company A and company B each time          period.

As the total activity overtakes the resource limit fewer trees are available for harvest. The mature trees gained per individual activity will decline resulting in lost profits. The two competing companies may start to harvest immature trees to protect their profit margin.  If this action is allowed the resource will be depleted beyond its ability to regenerate.

Archetype diagrams and questions adapted from Applying Systems Archetypes,
Daniel H. Kim & Colleen P. Lannon

http://www.watersfoundation.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=content.display&id=176

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Stock/Flow Maps

Stock/Flow (S/F) maps can show interdependencies and feedback within a system by identifying major accumulations and the factors that increase and decrease them over time. (©Catalina Foothills School District, 1997, 2003)

Click on a lesson title to view the lesson

Lessons Involving Stock/Flow Maps

Lesson Title	Subject	Grade
Writing an Animal Report	Language Arts	2
Understanding Nonfiction Text	LA/SS	5-12
Dynamics of Scrooge's Generosity	Language Arts	6-12
The Niko Shoe Company	Math	6-8
The Birthday Challenge	Math	8-12
The Growing Plant 2	Science	K-2
Search-and-Destroy Policy in Vietnam	Social Studies	6-12
S-Shaped Growth and Sustainability	Science	6-12

Tips for Stock/Flow Maps

Stock/Flow (S/F) Maps: Stock/Flow (S/F) maps can show interdependencies and feedback within a system by identifying major accumulations and the factors that increase and decrease them over time.  

1. Definitions: stock: an accumulation of "stuff", either concrete (e.g. dollars) or abstract (e.g. anger (to match e.g. in flow), that can increase or decrease over time.  Stocks are the "nouns" in the system and should be named (and labeled) as such. Stocks can only be modified through flows.

   flow: action or process that transports "stuff", directly adding to (inflow) or taking  away from (outflow) the accumulation in the stock.  A flow is always a rate and is defined in terms of units of the stock per unit of time ("stuff" in the stock per time).  Flows are the "verbs" in the system and it's best that they be labeled to reflect that- e.g., "dollars added/ing (per month)" or "anger released/ing (per hour)." The "cloud" at the end of the flow symbol represents the boundary of the system.

  converter: holds information about the system that affects the rate of the flows, or that affects the value of another converter. e.g. allowance affects the rate of dollars added per month

 connector:  moves information from one element of the system/map to another.  You can think of a connector as a "wire" that carries information (in contrast to a flow that carries "stuff"). It originates at the point where it "picks up" that information and terminates (the arrowhead end) at the place the information is delivered.  (Remember, stocks can only be affected through flows, therefore you should not attach a connector directly to a stock.)

2. A "bathtub" analogy may help to explain the concept of stocks and
   flows.

·         A stock is like the water in a bathtub, the level of which can change over time.

·         An inflow represents water being added through a faucet; an outflow represents water flowing out through a drain.

·         Converters and connectors determine how quickly the water flows in and/or out.

 3. Stock/flow mapping (and computer modeling, for that matter) proceeds by identifying the critical stock(s), then determining what flows are important in changing the amount of the stock, and finally by defining what elements in the system influence the rate of the flow(s).

 4. To identify which stock(s) to include in a map, first identify the critical behaviors of the system and create and discuss BOTGs that reflect those behaviors.

·         When choosing a name for any element in a Stock/Flow Map, keep comparative words such as more or less out of the name, e.g., Level of Stress is preferable to More Stress.  (See #5 in Tips for CLDs.)

·        Labeling parts of the map clearly is critically important. The labels make the story clear to others.

 

                                                                                                    

      

5. Converters contain information that, ultimately, affects the flows that affect the stocks. Work outward from the flows in identifying those converters.  What converter(s) will affect each flow?  What converter(s) will affect those original converters? 

6. Once you have drawn your stock(s), flows, converters, and
   connectors, make sure you look for the feedback from the stock(s)
   that makes a system dynamic.  Ask questions such as:  Does the
   accumulation in the stock affect its inflow? outflow? converters? other
   stocks’ inflow/outflow/converters?

©Catalina Foothills School District, 1997, 2003

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Computer Simulation Models

Complex dynamic systems involve many interdependencies and feedback loops. Understanding such systems is a daunting task for the human mind. Computer models can simulate the interdependent relationships and system behavior over time. Builders and/or users of the model have an opportunity to observe and experiment by changing variables to increase understanding and explore the long-term effects of different policy choices.

Click on a lesson title to view the lesson

Lessons Involving Pre-Built Computer Simulations

Lesson Title	Subject	Grade
Schoolwork, Homework, and Grades	Multiple	6-12
Dynamics of Scooge's Generosity	Language Arts	6-12
Search-and-Destroy Policy in Vietnam	Social Studies	6-12
Rumors - Exponential Growth	Multiple	6-12
Newton's 2nd Law	Science	9-12
Bacteria - Exponential Growth	Math/Science	6-12
S-Shaped Growth and Sustainability	Science	6-12

Lessons Requiring Model Building

Lesson Title	Subject	Grade
The Birthday Challenge	Math	8-12
The Niko Shoe Company	Math	6-8
Extinction of Wooly Mammoths	Math/Science	3-5

To explore sample models, case studies and tutorials please visit -
 www.iseesystems.com

http://www.watersfoundation.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=content.display&id=178

Habits of a Systems Thinker

Habits of a Systems Thinker Definitions

Seeks to understand the "big picture" A systems thinker "steps back" to examine the dynamics of a system and the interrelationships among its parts. S/he sees the forest, rather than the details of any one tree.

Observes how elements within systems change over time, generating patterns and trends Dynamic systems are made up of interdependent elements, the values of which change over time. A systems thinker may use a tool such as a behavior-over-time graph to record and observe the patterns and trends those changes generate.  The graphs can provide insight into the interdependence of the elements and the structure of the system.

Recognizes that a system's structure generates its behavior: focuses on structure, not on blame A systems thinker understands that blame is not an effective practice to bring about lasting change to a complex system. Rather, focusing on the structure of the system facilitates an understanding of the outcomes of the system. A systems thinker realizes that to effect change within a system; s/he must use knowledge of the system's structure.

Identifies the circular nature of complex cause and effect relationships, i.e. interdependencies A systems thinker knows that the cause & effect relationships within dynamic systems are circular rather than linear. Complex cause and effect relationships include balancing feedback, in which the system is trying to reach and maintain a goal (e.g. the heating system in a house or cruise control on a car). There also may be reinforcing feedback, such that the more you start with the more it increases over time (e.g. population or investments). To increase understanding of complex cause and effect relationships, systems thinkers use causal loop diagrams, connection circles, and stock/flow maps.

Changes perspectives To understand how a dynamic system actually works, a systems thinker looks at the system from a variety of different angles and from differing points of view, perhaps in collaboration with others.

Surfaces and tests assumptions A systems thinker will rigorously examine assumptions in order to gain insight into a system.  Insight put into action can lead to improved performance.

Considers an issue fully and resists the urge to come to a quick conclusion A systems thinker is patient.  S/he will take time to understand the system's structure and its behaviors before recommending and implementing a course of action. A systems thinker also understands that succumbing to the urge for a quick solution can create more problems in the long term. S/he is aware of the tension created when a resolution is not immediately implemented and is able to hold that tension while a deeper understanding of the system is developed.

Considers how mental models (i.e., attitudes and beliefs derived from experience) affect current reality and the future. Mental models are the beliefs and attitudes gained through experience that influence the way a person views the world and takes action. Working with a dynamic system requires a systems thinker to be mindful of how mental models affect the system's outcomes now and in the future.

Uses understanding of system structures to identify possible leverage actions Based on an understanding of the structure, interdependencies, and feedback within a system, a systems thinker implements the leverage action that seems most likely to produce desirable outcomes.  According to Senge (1990), leverage is ".....seeing where actions and changes in structure can lead to significant, enduring improvements."

Considers both short and long term consequences of actions Before taking action to change a dynamic system, a system thinker weighs the possible short and long-term outcomes of the action. This practice increases the probability of the chosen action producing the desired outcomes.

Finds where unintended consequences emerge Before any action is taken to change the outcomes of a dynamic system, a systems thinker uses proven strategies (e.g. systems archetypes or a system dynamics model) to anticipate unintended consequences. If it is determined that probable unintended consequences are unacceptable, another course of action is explored.

Recognizes the impact of time delays when exploring cause & effect relationships A systems thinker recognizes that when an action is taken within a complex, dynamic system, the outcome of the action may not be seen for some time. A systems thinker will account for the impact these delays may have within the system.

Checks results and changes actions if needed: "successive approximation" By definition, dynamic systems are constantly changing over time. A systems thinker, therefore, monitors and evaluates the behavior of the system and takes action when needed to assure the system continues to produce the desired results.

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SYSTEMS THINKING CONCEPTS

SYSTEMS THINKING CONCEPTS:

accumulations "Accumulations are everywhere. The food in our stomach. The money in your wallet. The knowledge in your head. The love in your heart. All are accumulations. All have surged and slumped, waxed and waned, as your life has rolled along. Accumulations in a system indicate how things are. If your stomach is too full, you feel uncomfortable. If your gas gauge is near empty, that’s also uncomfortable. On the other hand, if you've just blown off some steam in a productive manner, your blood pressure probably has now inched down a few points. We can assess the state of "things" by gauging the magnitudes of the relevant accumulations. Accumulations thus serve as barometers of conditions within a system." An Introduction to Systems Thinking, (STELLA, HPS-Inc.)

archetype Common causal loop combinations (combinations of balancing and reinforcing loops) that are often found within a system structure. Systems Thinking and Dynamic Modeling, David P. Kreutzer, (1994)

balancing feedback "a balancing process is always operating to reduce a gap between what is desired and what exists." The Fifth Discipline, The Art and Practice of the Learning Organization, Senge, (Doubleday: 1990) The system takes action based on the gap, the greater the gap, the more action occurs. Negative loops counteract and oppose change. The less nicotine in a cigarette, the more smokers must consume to get the dose they need. The larger the market share of dominant firms, the more likely is government antitrust action to limit their monopoly power. These loops all describe processes that tend to be self-limiting, processes that seek balance and equilibrium.

boundaries Boundaries are the definition of all that is required to produce the behavior of the system and elimination of all else.

change over time The elements of a system change as time passes, as does the amount in each accumulation within the system.

circular causality "The language of systems thinking is circular rather than linear. It focuses on closed interdependencies, where x influences y, y influences z, and z influences x." Systems Thinking as a Language, Michael Goodman (Pegasus Communications, Systems Thinking Tools, 1995)

delays Delays are time lags between actions and effects, and effects and actions.

doubling time "Pure exponential growth has the remarkable property that doubling time is constant: the state of the system doubles in a fixed period of time, no matter how large." Business Dynamics, Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World, John D. Sterman, McGraw-Hill: 2000)

drifting goals "In a drifting goals archetype, a gap between the goal and current reality can be resolved by taking corrective action or lowering the goal. The critical difference is that lowering the goal immediately closes the gap, whereas corrective actions usually take time." Systems Archetypes at a Glance, Daniel Kim (Pegasus Communications, The Systems Thinker, 1995)

dynamic "Characterized by continuous change, activity, or progress." The American Heritage Dictionary of the English Language, Fourth Edition (Houghton Mifflin Company, 2000)

dynamic complexity "Dynamic complexity arises from the interactions among the agents (in a system) over time." Business Dynamics, Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World, John Sterman (McGraw Hill, 2000)

dynamic system Systems, which change over time, are dynamic. Growth, decay, and oscillations are the fundamental patterns of systems.

equilibrium Stasis, in which the state of the system remains constant over time Business Dynamics, Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World, John Sterman (McGraw Hill, 2000)

escalation A systems archetype in which two entities compete for superiority. As on party's actions put it ahead, the other party retaliates by increasing its actions. Examples: price battles, the Cold War. Systems Thinking Basics, Anderson and Johnson (Pegasus Communications)

exponential change Any time the rate of change of some quantity is proportional to the quantity itself, the function for the quantity is an exponential function.

exponential decay "Exponential decay is a process wherein the change of a quantity, from iteration to iteration, is proportional to the quantity itself. Thus the size of a population determines how quickly their numbers will diminish." An Introduction to Systems Thinking, (STELLAÒ, HPS-Inc.) See also exponential growth.

exponential growth "arises from positive (self-reinforcing) feedback. The larger the quantity, the greater its net increase, further augmenting the quantity and leading to the ever-faster growth." Business Dynamics, Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World, John D. Sterman, (McGraw-Hill: 2000)

feedback "Feedback is said to occur when the effect of a cause re-effects the next iteration of the cause. The size of a population is the cause affecting, as feedback, the amount of the next change of population. The fractional effect on the population change from iteration to iteration is called the feedback fraction." An Introduction to Systems Thinking, (STELLAÒ, HPS-Inc.) "... process whereby an initial cause ripples through a chain of causation ultimately to re-affect itself" Introduction to Computer Simulation, A System Dynamics Modeling Approach, Roberts, Anderson, Deal, Garet, Shaffer, (1983)

Fixes that Fail/Backfire ". . . a problem symptom cries out for resolution. A solution is quickly implemented that alleviates the symptom, but the unintended consequences of the "fix" exacerbate the problem. Over time, the problem symptom returns to its previous level or becomes worse." Applying Systems Archetypes, Kim and Lannon (Pegasus Communications)

flows "Flows represent activities that cause conditions to change." An Introduction to Systems Thinking, (STELLAÒ, HPS-Inc.) Examples of flows are evaporating, precipitating, gaining, losing, building, venting, depositing, withdrawing, being born, dying, etc.

generic structure A generic structure is a structure which exhibits generic behavior. It tends to recur in many walks of every day life, the behavior of which is transferable to other situations. Examples: linear growth, linear decay, compounding growth, compounding decay, goal seeking growth, goal seeking decay, etc.

goal-seeking behavior "Positive feedback loops generate growth, amplify deviations, and reinforce change. Negative loops seek balance, equilibrium, and stasis. Negative feedback loops act to bring the state of the system in line with a goal or desired state." Business Dynamics, Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World, John D. Sterman, (McGraw-Hill: 2000)

infection dynamics "Epidemics of infectious diseases often exhibit S-shaped growth. The cumulative number of cases follows an S-shaped curve while the rate at which new cases occur rises exponentially, peaks, then falls as the epidemic ends." Business Dynamics, Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World, John D. Sterman, (McGraw-Hill: 2000)

interdependencies Components of a system affect each other; the dynamics of the system are determined by the effects of the interdependencies, rather than by the components of the system themselves.

leverage "leverage - seeing where actions and changes in structures can lead to significant, enduring improvements." (The Fifth Discipline, The Art and Practice of the Learning Organization, Senge, 1990)

limits to growth "No real quantity can grow forever. Every system initially exhibiting exponential growth will eventually approach the carrying capacity of its environment, whether that is the food supply for a population of a moose, the number of people susceptible to infection by a virus, or the potential market for a new product." Business Dynamics, Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World, John D. Sterman, (McGraw-Hill: 2000)

Limits to Success "In a limits to success scenario, continued efforts initially lead to improved performance. Over time, however, the system encounters a limit which causes the performance to slow down or even decline even as efforts continue to rise." Systems Archetypes at a Glance, Daniel Kim (Pegasus Communications, The Systems Thinker, 1995)

linear decay "requires that there be no feedback from the state of the system to the net increase (or decrease) rate, because the net increase (or decrease) remains constant even as the state of the system changes." Business Dynamics, Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World, John D. Sterman, (McGraw-Hill: 2000)

linear growth "requires that there be no feedback from the state of the system to the net increase (or decrease) rate, because the net increase (or decrease) remains constant even as the state of the system changes." Business Dynamics, Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World, John D. Sterman, (McGraw-Hill: 2000)

loop dominance "The word dominates suggests that a particular loop in a system of more than one loop is most responsible for the current overall behavior of that system. Which particular loop dominates might shift over time." Introduction to Computer Simulation, A System Dynamics Modeling Approach, Roberts, Anderson, Deal, Garet, Shaffer, (1983)

mental models  "Mental models are deeply ingrained assumptions, generalizations, or even pictures or images that influence how we understand the world and how we take action." The Fifth Discipline, The Art and Practice of the Learning Organization, Senge, (Doubleday: 1990)

multiple levels of perspective ". . . skills you need for defining an effective scope and level of detail for your mental models. . . . broad enough to capture the relevant set of relationships, yet shallow and "airy" enough to be cognitively manageable. Such models support the out-of-the-box/above-the-silo thinking needed to reveal high-leverage interventions." The Thinking In Systems Thinking, Barry Richmond (Pegasus Communications, 2000)

negative feedback loops Negative loops counteract and oppose change. The less nicotine in a cigarette, the more smokers must consume to get the dose they need. The larger the market share of dominant firms, the more likely is government antitrust action to limit their monopoly power. These loops all describe processes that tend to be self-limiting, processes that seek balance and equilibrium.

organizational learning Organizational learning facilitates a group’s ability to continually expand its capacity to create its future. Organizational learning requires a dynamic understanding of the system that supports current reality and a shared vision of and responsibility for the reality that is possible. Team learning, personal mastery, and an appreciation of the power of mental models are essential elements of organizational learning. The Fifth Discipline, The Art and Practice of the Learning Organization, Senge, (Doubleday: 1990)

oscillation "Oscillation is the third fundamental mode of behavior observed in dynamic systems. Like goal-seeking behavior, oscillations are caused by negative feedback loops. The state of the system is compared to its goal, and corrective actions are taken to eliminate any discrepancies. In an oscillatory system the state of the system constantly overshoots its goal or equilibrium state, reverses, then undershoots, and so on. The overshooting arises from the presence of significant time delays in the negative loop. The time delays cause corrective actions to continue even after the state of the system reaches its goal, forcing the system to adjust too much, and triggering a new correction in the opposite direction." Business Dynamics, Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World, John D. Sterman, (McGraw-Hill: 2000)

pattern/trend "The general direction in which something tends to move." The American Heritage Dictionary of the English Language, Fourth Edition (Houghton Mifflin Company, 2000

personal mastery ". . . to continually clarifying what is important to us. . . . continually learning how to see current reality more clearly." The Fifth Discipline, The Art and Practice of the Learning Organization, Peter Senge, (Doubleday: 1990)

population dynamics "Population dynamics is a key content area in many social studies and science curricula. From one-celled organisms to human populations, a generic structure can be used as a basis for studying the dynamics of population growth and decline." An Introduction to Systems Thinking, (STELLAÒ, HPS-Inc.)

positive feedback Each change feeds back through the system to cause still more change. This amplifies or adds to any change in the system. Examples: bank interest, knowledge, power, spread of an epidemic, spread of rumors, population growth. These issues are common and important to every day life. (Systems One, Draper Kauffman, Jr., Future Systems, Inc.: 1980)

reinforcing feedback Each change feeds back through the system to cause still more change. This amplifies or adds to any change in the system. Examples: bank interest, knowledge, power, spread of an epidemic, spread of rumors, population growth. These issues are common and important to every day life. (Systems One, Draper Kauffman, Jr., Future Systems, Inc.: 1980) "In reinforcing processes, …a small change builds on itself. Whatever movement occurs is amplified, producing more movement in the same direction." The Fifth Discipline, The Art and Practice of the Learning Organization, Senge, (Doubleday: 1990)

shared vision "A vision is truly shared when you and I have similar picture and are committed to one another having it, not just to each of us, individually, having it." The Fifth Discipline, The Art and Practice of the Learning Organization, Senge, (Doubleday: 1990

Shifting the Burden/Addiction In a shifting the burden scenario, a problem is solved by applying a symptomatic solution which diverts attention away from more fundamental solutions. In an addiction structure, a shifting the burden degrades into an addictive pattern in which the side-effect gets so entrenched that it overwhelms the original problem symptom. Systems Archetypes at a Glance, Daniel Kim (Pegasus Communications, The Systems Thinker, 1995)

S-shaped growth " . . . growth is exponential at first, but then gradually slows until the state of the system reaches an equilibrium level. The shape of the curve resembles a stretched-out - S". Business Dynamics, Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World, John D. Sterman, (McGraw-Hill: 2000)

stock/accumulation/accumulator "Anything that builds up or dwindles." Systems Thinking Basics: From Concepts to Causal Loops, Anderson and Johnson (Pegasus Communications, Inc. 1997)

structure generates behavior "Structure produces behavior and changing, underlying structures can produce different patterns of behavior. Structure in human systems includes the "operating policies" of the decision makers in the system." The Fifth Discipline, The Art and Practice of the Learning Organization, Peter Senge, (Doubleday: 1990)

Success to the Successful "In a success to the successful archetype, if one person or group is given more resources, it has a higher likelihood of succeeding (assuming they are equally capable). The initial success justifies devoting more resources to the successful party. As one gets less resources, its success diminishes, further justifying more resource allocations to another." Systems Archetypes at a Glance, Daniel Kim (Pegasus Communications, The Systems Thinker, 1995)

system "A set of parts or elements that are related and that interact to form a single whole or something that is considered a whole." Houghton Mifflin Dictionary Student (Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1989)

system dynamics ". . . the study of how systems change over time." Modeling the Environment, An Introduction to System dynamics Modeling of Environmental Systems, Andrew Ford (Island Press, 1999)

system structure The manner in which a system’s elements are organized or interrelated. Systems Thinking Basics: From Concepts to Causal Loops, Anderson and Johnson (Pegasus Communications, Inc. 1997)

Systems Citizen Systems Citizens strive to understand the complexities of today's world and have the capability to face into problems with an informed capacity to make a positive difference.

systems thinking "Systems thinking is a discipline for seeing wholes. It is a framework for seeing interrelationships rather than things, for seeing patterns of change rather than static "snapshots." The Fifth Discipline, The Art and Practice of the Learning Organization, Senge, (Doubleday: 1990)

team learning "Team learning is the process of aligning and developing the capacity of a team to create the results its members truly desire. It builds on the discipline of developing shared vision." The Fifth Discipline, The Art and Practice of the Learning Organization, Peter Senge, (Doubleday: 1990)

temporal boundary  In the study of a system, the length of time over which the system's behavior will be considered.

time horizon "The length of time appearing on the horizontal axis of the reference mode is often called the time horizon of the model." Modeling the Environment, An Introduction to System dynamics Modeling of Environmental Systems, Andrew Ford (Island Press, 1999)

Tragedy of the Commons In a Tragedy of the Commons structure, each party pursues actions which are individually beneficial. If the amount of activity grows too large for the system to support, the commons becomes overloaded and everyone experiences diminishing benefits. Systems Archetypes at a Glance, Daniel Kim (Pegasus Communications, The Systems Thinker, 1995)

unintended consequences All actions and decisions have consequences some of which are intended and anticipated, some of which are unintended and are often unanticipated, especially long-term unintended consequences.

http://www.watersfoundation.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=search.concepts

Leadership Question #1: Who Has Impacted Your Leadership the Most?

Awhile back, Michael Smith, Associate pastor of ClearView Baptist Church in Franklin, Tennessee, interviewed me as part of a research project he was doing on leadership. I thought his questions were so powerful that I posted them on my blog under the title, “20 Questions to Ask Other Leaders.”

Photo courtesy of ©iStockphoto.com/DeanProductions

Several people commented that they would like to hear my answers to Michael’s questions. I am finally getting around to that and have decided to answer one question per post until I get through his list.

The first question Michael asked me was this one:

Can you name a person who has had a tremendous impact on you as a leader? Maybe someone who has been a mentor to you? Why and how did this person impact your life?”

I wrote on this topic previously as part of “The Noticer Project: The Five People Who Have Had the Greatest Influence on Me.” But if I had to select one person, I would pick Robert Wolgemuth, my one-time boss, former business partner, and close friend.

Robert and I worked side-by-side for seventeen years. I saw him in the best of times and the worst of times. I doubt there is anyone who knows him better with the exception of his wife, Bobbie.

Here are three reasons why he had such an impact on me:

1. His commitment to integrity. As I wrote previously, when Robert first hired me, he promised me a raise in 90 days if I did a good job. When it came time to make good on the promise, our parent company had frozen raises for all employees. So what did Robert do? He paid me the raise out of his own pocket. This had a profound impact on me. I learned from him that integrity is about making your actions line up with your words.
2. His commitment to responsiveness. Robert was the first person I ever met who practiced near-instant responsiveness. It made him stand out in stark contrast to so many others who take forever to get back to me or simply failed to deliver what they had promised. He taught me that people want to do business with people who are responsive. This simple character trait can provide a huge competitive advantage, particularly in a world where people are often overwhelmed and slow to respond.
3. His commitment to gratitude. Robert is one of the most grateful people I know. Now a successful author and businessman, he is never too busy to stop and thank people. This is incredibly motivating to those who serve him. Not surprisingly, it makes people voluntarily want to follow him and do business with him. Again, it makes him stand out among so many who demonstrate an attitude of entitlement.

There are ten more things I could list, but these three are etched into my leadership psyche. I am forever grateful for the living model of leadership that Robert provided early in my career.

Question: What about you. Who has had the biggest impact on you as a leader?

http://michaelhyatt.com/leadership-question-1-who-has-impacted-your-leadership-the-most.html

20 Questions to Ask Other Leaders

As a leader, how do you become a better leader? If you’re like me, you probably read a lot of books, listen to podcasts, and attend a few conferences. But one of the best ways to grow is to ask other leaders questions.

Photo courtesy of ©iStockphoto.com/JLGutierrez

A few weeks ago, Michael Smith called and asked if he could interview me. Michael is on the staff of ClearView Baptist Church in Franklin, Tennessee. We follow each other on Twitter, but we have only met one time previously. He said that he wanted to interview me on the topic of leadership. I happily agreed.

Michael began our meeting by sharing with me that he is on a sabbatical. One of his goals is to grow as a leader and one of his sabbatical projects is to interview leaders in various professions. I was honored that he choose me as someone worth interviewing.

What really impressed me was how thoroughly prepared he was. Michael askedgreat, thoughtful questions. In fact, the questions were so good that I asked him for permission to post them here. I have printed this list out and put it in my Moleskine notebook. The next time I am with a leader I respect, I can pop out this list and start interviewing.

1. Can you name a person who has had a tremendous impact on you as a leader? Maybe some one who has been a mentor to you? Why and how did this person impact your life?
2. What are the most important decisions you make as a leader of your organization?
3. As an organization gets larger there can be a tendency for the “institution” to dampen the “inspiration.” How do you keep this from happening?
4. How do you encourage creative thinking within your organization?
5. Where do the great ideas come from in your organization?
6. Which is most important to your organization—mission, core values or vision?
7. How do you or other leaders in your organization communicate the “core values”?
8. How do you encourage others in your organization to communicate the “core values”?
9. Do you set aside specific times to cast vision to your employees and other leaders?
10. How do you ensure your organization and its activities are aligned with your “core values”?
11. How do you help a new employee understand the culture of your organization?
12. When faced with two equally-qualified candidates, how do you determine whom to hire?
13. What is one characteristic that you believe every leader should possess?
14. What is the biggest challenge facing leaders today?
15. What is one mistake you witness leaders making more frequently than others?
16. What is the one behavior or trait that you have seen derail more leaders’ careers?
17. Can you explain the impact, if any, that social networking and Web 2.0 has made on your organization or you personally?
18. What are a few resources you would recommend to someone looking to gain insight into becoming a better leader?
19. What advice would you give someone going into a leadership position for the first time?
20. What are you doing to ensure you continue to grow and develop as a leader?

You might start by asking yourself these questions. Better yet, ask them and then blog about them. This will give you some basis of comparison as you begin to learn from the leaders around you.

Question: What do you like to ask other leaders when you get the chance?

http://michaelhyatt.com/20-questions-to-ask-other-leaders.html